Surface and Intermediate Water Changes Triggering the Future Collapse of Deep Water Formation in the North Western Mediterranean

Deep water formation (DWF) in the North Western Mediterranean (NWMed) is a key feature of overturning circulation. DWF changes under global warming may have an impact on biogeochemistry and marine ecosystem. Here we analyze deep convection Gulf Lions (GoL) changing climate using regional system model with horizontal resolution high enough to represent DWF. We find that RCP8.5 scenario NWMed collapses by 2040–2050, leading 92% shoaling winter mixed layer end century. The collapse related strengthening vertical stratification GoL caused properties Modified Atlantic Water Levantine Intermediate Water, being their relative contribution increase 57.8% 42.2%, respectively. also alter circulation exchange Atlantic.